Complacency Kills: QMN019

Martial Mental Models: The Quartermaster, Monday, 20 May

(Today’s report is a 5 minute read)

BLUF: The eternal return in warfare - where armies and nations fail consistently over time - is not so much about overcoming a foe, but about complacency in victory. Can we overcome this very human cycle with focused effort to build a practice of continuous learning?

Brady here. In Season 1 of the HBO crime series True Detective we find the protagonists Marty Hart and Rust Cohle trying to solve a string of child disappearances and uncover a death cult. The cult followers as we find them profess some themes about mortality and time, and across the episodes we find one to be borne out in the drama itself: time is a flat circle. Marty and Rust find themselves years later in life pursuing the same case. But a totem of the death cult is actually a crooked spiral- implying somehow that the cycles may end at some point. The question becomes, as Marty and Rust examine evidence and their own experiences: can we affect cycles to end them or stall them? Can we take control of our fate through study and action?

The eternal return is a theme as old as man. You can find ancient proof in Ecclesiastes 1:9:

What has been is what will be,

 and what has been done is what will be done,

 and there is nothing new under the sun.

As far back as humans could observe, we find ourselves in cycles. We see people presented with the same situations again and again despite all their best efforts. This presents us with two opposed views on time and existence- a fatalist one where nothing we try matters, and that fate is out of our hands - kind of a Greek tragedy mindset. The other is a sense that if we understand these cycles that we can work within them to achieve our aims. 

Throughout the 1930s British historian Arnold J. Toynbee wrote and released A Study of History, where he identified many patterns and cycles across all human history. He finds that the eternal return in warfare - where armies and nations fail consistently over time - is not so much about overcoming a foe, but about complacency in victory, and calls it the real “nemesis in warfare”:

“Each link has been a cycle of invention, triumph, lethargy and disaster; and, on the precedents thus set by three thousand years of military history, from Goliath’s encounter with David to the piercing of a Maginot Line and a West Wall by the thrust of mechanical cataphracts and the pin-point marksmanship of archers on winged steeds, we may expect fresh illustrations of our theme to be provided with monotonous consistency so long as mankind is so perverse as to go on cultivating the art of war.”

In the 1970s another historian, Trevor N. Dupuy, claimed that Toynbee’s “Nemesis in Warfare” may have in fact been overcome for a time through institutional excellence. When Germany reformed itself after crushing defeats in the early 1800s it put in place a culture of practice and continuous learning, where its institutions were adapted to fit changing technology and accompanying tactics. Dupuy believed that this culture helped it skip the lethargy and disaster steps following its great success of the Franco Prussian War in 1870. Now, anyone would say that if true, this effort simply stalled the cycle and that Germany got its disaster doubly following the First World War, but the idea that a culture of continuous learning that puts hard lessons into action could affect one's fate is a tempting one. At the end it's a fight against complacency - an inward struggle to know that what got us to our state now won't get us to where we want to be tomorrow, and to take that knowledge and act up on it consistently. (BJM)

TEAM ROOMS OF THE MIND: KS here. Here are some additional thoughts from on psychological safety from my friend M, a retired U.S. Army Warrant Officer and Senior Executive Service executive. He is currently a managing partner at Se7ven Arrows Crisis Management Group. 

- Teams provide a structural mechanism through which this collaboration often occurs. A defining characteristic of teams is the need for different individuals to work together to achieve a shared outcome (Hackman, 1987). 

- Both the research literature and anecdotal experiences of people who have worked on teams suggest that working interdependently with others is not always easy. Put simply, some teams work – members collaborate well – and others don't (Hackman, 1990). 

- Understanding how people perceive the interpersonal climate in the teams in which they work is an important part of the larger question of understanding both teamwork and learning in organizations.

- Ensuring that it’s ok to be open about a difference of ideas is a multiplier in any group setting.

- Amy Edmondson, a Harvard Business School professor who coined the term, describes a psychologically safe workplace culture as “one where people are not full of fear, and not trying to cover their tracks to avoid being embarrassed or pushed.” In other words, one in which it’s ok to voice your opinion and make mistakes since learning from them is encouraged, even celebrated.

- An important fact for leaders is that a friendly work environment is not the result of being nice. This is about honesty,and about productive disagreements and a free exchange of ideas.

 (M via KSA, edited for brevity)

THE JUNIOR EXEC BY CPP: Leadership Through Accountability

Chris here. If you are going to hold your reports accountable, then don’t get upset when they hold you accountable. Understanding early on that leadership is a two-way street will help you open incredible insights and capabilities within your team and your reports; if they feel comfortable coming to you in a professional manner in providing feedback, you can adjust your approach without derailing your team or your leadership.

It’s simple: in your 1:1’s with your reports, start the meeting by asking them two things you could do to make their job easier. Tell them to be brutally honest. Take notes. Acknowledge that you’ll try to address those things as best you can, and thank them for their feedback. It’s probable that as their boss, they won’t open up initially - but ask again and again, and show that you will act on their feedback. You’ll establish a pattern of candor that tightens up the feedback loop inside your team - and the team that pulses faster grows faster.

You will be shocked at the speed at which your team can close ranks and work through ‘office politics’ to focus on the mission. 

Remarks Complete. Nothing Follows.

KS Anthony (KSA) Chris Papasadero (CPP) & Brady Moore (BJM)