Anticipating Tomorrow's War: QMN066
Future conflict may have the US and its allies fighting against Russia or China and their allies in the next couple decades, which surfaces a few startling premises about American readiness.
(This week’s report is a 9 minute read)
BLUF: There’s a growing understanding that future conflict will have the US and its allies fighting against Russia or China and their allies at some point in the next couple decades. This idea has a few startling premises about American readiness, as well as wide-ranging implications for technology development and use. Quartermaster readers should know about this - it’s your future too.
Brady here. I spent some time over the past few weeks going over the state of the US Army’s modernization strategy, and thought our readers would be interested to see what’s (expected to be) in the future. We’ve spent some time in this newsletter examining the future of urban warfare, and guest writer Kevin Todd has given us a look at some of the preparation for Multi-Domain Warfare, but a good overview is due here. This information is valuable because it’s going to affect military spending, troop deployments, and the United States’ footprint around the world for the coming couple decades.
Ukrainian soldiers perform an aeromedical evacuation for a simulated injured soldier as part of the field training exercise, Sept. 24, 2019, during Rapid Trident 2019, near Yavoriv, Ukraine. (Photo by Staff Sgt. Amanda H. Johnson)
Colonel Timothy Hummel, Director of the US Army Training & Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (G2) Operational Environment Center gave a great overview a couple weeks ago in Washington DC (watch from beginning to 12:20). COL Hummel’s job is to characterize what the future battlefield will look like, and then help build that environment into the US Army’s training centers. The idea is that if we can present US Army leaders with problems that reflect what we expect to see from our adversaries, not only will our leaders be more prepared, but they’ll start to be able to help develop ways to counter threats on their own.
The future of the operational environment (From “Developing Leaders for Multi-Domain Operations” by COL Hummel & MG Muth on DVIDs)
In summary, over the past couple decades, the United States’ adversaries have been watching how the US fights and developed ways of defeating our advantages - mostly by building better weapons and employing them in ways that we have difficulty countering. Perhaps the best example is what’s called Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities that prevent the US from operating in an area at all. It’s no secret that the US has enjoyed air supremacy (probably the US’s most important advantage on the battlefield today) everywhere it’s deployed for the past couple decades, and its ability to control the skies makes it able to put drones wherever it likes, and deploy overwhelming ground forces by air often in a matter of hours. If Russia and China can be so capable at electronic warfare and air defense capabilities that the US can’t fly to (and over) the fight, it means that US and allied forces can’t gather intelligence or insert ground troops. And the second and third order effects in these cases mean that we can’t effectively support our front-line allies in Eastern Europe or the Pacific. Bad news.
But A2/AD is only one area where Russia and China have developed overmatch capabilities - they’re also adept at integrating cyber-attacks, including information operations, and massed artillery and rocket fires. A past significant American advantage has been command and control (C2) capabilities tied to communication networks - one that requires large, often stationary headquarters with really big electromagnetic signatures . These present very valuable targets for an adversary that can quickly use sensors to find headquarters and long-range artillery to wipe them out. More bad news.
How the US will win on future battlefields (from the US Army’s Multi-Domain Battle publication from December 2017)
So what does all this mean for the future battlefield? What do our troops need to be prepared for? First, US and allied forces will need to understand how to work without the air assets and communications freedom they’ve come to rely upon. That’s going to affect and change just about everything they do, if we’re being realistic. And then - if what we saw in the Ukraine a few years ago (at the Battle of Ilovaisk, 2014 and Battle of Debaltseve, 2015) is any indicator, the next major conflict’s casualty statistics will look more like the Second World War (such as in the Battle of the Bulge) - where single engagements had 10x or 100x the amount of killed and wounded compared to our more recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our abilities to regroup and recover from such attacks haven’t been tested in a very, very long time.
What can we do to prepare? COL Hummel identified areas for tech development and procurement that include:
Lasers (example: THEL)
Quantum Computing
AI & Robotics
Hypersonics (example: DARPA Falcon)
Noting that “materiel itself is not decisive,” Hummel correctly asserts that getting these technologies is actually only a fraction of what needs to be accomplished. These technologies must be procured, but then adopted, trained on, built into strategies, operations and tactics, and ultimately deployed and used in combat, in order for them to become effective.
The two biggest obstacles, as I see them, to developing capabilities that lead to success on the future battlefield are procurement and synchronization. The US military’s acquisition capability is notoriously broken (something Substack writer Matt Stoller and friends explain on his BIG Newsletter) such that in the long time it takes the military go from to identifying the need to acquiring the tech to fill the need, the tech itself can become obsolete. The US Army and Marine Corps determined years ago that in order to counter these Russian and Chinese capabilities, they have to not just operate concurrently across at least 5 different domains (Land, Sea, Air, Space and Cyber) to be effective - but need to do so with “speed of action, coordination, and synchronization.” Getting different services that have vastly different systems, equipment, cultures, and even languages to synchronize their efforts to focus on an enemy weak point on a massively complex battlefield is a very, very tall order. Take into account that both Russian and Chinese strategies often attempt to fragment and isolate the US and its allies long before armed engagement, and it gets even tougher.
Change is coming whether we like it or not - the question is if we’re preparing ourselves to win on these future battlefields using new tools and skills and the understanding that comes with practice. If we follow our usual practice of “fighting the last war” it’s going to be ugly. (BJM)
*****
VETERAN CIGAR REVIEW by KS Anthony
KS here. My love of books and liquor aside, I’m also a cigar aficionado, having picked up the habit during my misspent youth. Suffice it to say, a love of cigars is something shared by many and I’m pleased to write the first reviews of a couple of new line of cigars created by Army veteran Mario Caraballo, now a partner in Tarazona Cigars with Eddie Tarazona.
For this edition of the QMN, I’m reviewing two of three vitolas that Mario – who I’ve traded and smoked quite a few cigars with – was kind enough to provide. The reason I’m not reviewing all three is because, well, I’ve only smoked two and I have a deadline. All are rolled in Nicaragua with Nicaraguan fillers.
Caraballo 828 Oscuro Dead Presidents (torpedo) 6 x 52
Wrapper: Habano Nicaragua
Binder: Sumatra Ecuador
Filler: Esteli, Condega, Jalapa
Glossy dark wrapper, no large veins. Black and gold bands at the head and foot. Easy draw. Smooth, plenty of rich earth, spice, and coffee in these: I'd recommend pairing with either a sweet bourbon or a lighter single-malt scotch to complement the flavors here. Firm ash, consistent draw, no roll issues whatsoever: you'd expect nothing less, as these are rolled by Cuban-born Juan "Papito" Alberto Gomez-Pacheco, a protegé of the legendary Alejandro Robaina. Anything else won't serve to underscore the layers of flavor. The second third has a pronounced nicotine kick that might leave novice smokers reeling, but aficionados will find it an altogether solid smoke, perfect for an autumn evening.
Construction: 10/10
Draw/Ash: 10/10
First ⅓: 8/10
Second ⅓ : 9/10
Final ⅓: 10/10
Total: 9.4/10
Caraballo 828 Claro Shekel (robusto) 5 x 52
Wrapper: Connecticut
Binder: Sumatra Ecuador
Filler: Esteli, Condega, Jalapa
Smooth Connecticut wrapper, single cap, tight construction as with the rest of Caraballo line, though I had some trouble keeping this one lit after it burned down to the last half. Crimson and gold bands at the head and foot. Sweet, smooth smoke: leather, chocolate, espresso, and hazelnut notes throughout. If you've got the time and inclination, this would pair well with cinnamon and sugar-laced coffee as a morning or afternoon smoke or, for the more daring, absinthe or pastis in the evening. I enjoyed this with late afternoon coffee and dark chocolate.
Construction: 10/10
Draw/Ash: 9/10
First ⅓: 9/10
Second ⅓ : 9/10
Final ⅓: 9/10
Total: 9.2/10
You can see (blurry) pictures of these on my cigars and booze Instagram account. For ordering information, email info@tarazonacigars.com or ask your local brick and mortar to carry them. (KSA)
*****
FEDERAL CLOUD FIGHT: Microsoft Wins Pentagon’s $10 Billion JEDI Contract, Thwarting Amazon (6 min) “As recently as this month, the betting was that Microsoft would, at most, get only part of the contract and that the Pentagon would use multiple suppliers for its cloud services, as do many private companies. Microsoft was considered in the lead for other government cloud programs, including an intelligence contract; only recently has Microsoft opened enough classified server facilities to be able to handle data on the scale of the Pentagon contract. “The acquisition process was conducted in accordance with applicable laws and regulations,” the Defense Department said in a statement on Friday. “All offerors were treated fairly and evaluated consistently with the solicitation’s stated evaluation criteria.”Microsoft did not immediately have a comment. Amazon, which calls its cloud platform Amazon Web Services, or AWS, said in a statement that it was surprised by the decision.”(BJM)
REAL TALK: Military artificial intelligence can be easily and dangerously fooled (9 min) “But shortly after deep learning burst onto the scene, researchers found that the very properties that make it so powerful are also an Achilles’ heel. Just as it’s possible to calculate how to tweak a network’s parameters so that it classifies an object correctly, it is possible to calculate how minimal changes to the input image can cause the network to misclassify it. In such “adversarial examples,” just a few pixels in the image are altered, leaving it looking just the same to a person but very different to an AI algorithm. The problem can arise anywhere deep learning might be used—for example, in guiding autonomous vehicles, planning missions, or detecting network intrusions. Amid the buildup in military uses of AI, these mysterious vulnerabilities in the software have been getting far less attention.” (BJM)
DARING COMMON SENSE AT WORK: The 5-Hour Workday Gets Put to the Test (7 min) “We have all experienced that: We sit in the office, out of energy, reading newspapers online or Facebook, just in need of the little pauses to recharge, but you don’t really recharge,” he says. “My idea is focusing on the first five hours and then just leave, and have a proper break.” To accomplish that, small talk during work hours is discouraged. Social media is banned. Phones are kept in backpacks. Company email accounts are checked just twice a day. Most meetings are scheduled to last no more than 15 minutes. As a result, the company produces the same level of output for clients despite shorter days, says Mr. Rheingans. He says the company, which develops websites, apps and e-commerce platforms, was profitable in 2018, the first full year he owned it. He says happier employees deliver better work for clients, and the shorter workday is a draw, boosting recruitment in Germany’s tight labor market.” (BJM)
Remarks Complete. Nothing Follows.
KS Anthony (KSA) & Brady Moore (BJM)